"I saw that coming. That story is so predictable".
This is often a derogatory statement. I read reviews for books, movies, tv shows etc. and I rarely fail to find complaints of this nature (typically in speculative fiction, but that is another topic). Whatever medium it was in, the perceived flaw is lack of originality. The story's theme was tired, the plot elements over-used, seen it before a million times, etc. Rarely do I find complaints that the plot was non-sensical.
In this way, a surprising twist or a shock to readers is seen as originality. The failure to do this is lacking originality, tantamount to regurgitating a previous story. If there is nothing new, nothing fresh, nothing unexpected, then there is supposedly nothing worth seeing. It is seen as a critical flaw. If only the writer(s) did something surprising...
I understand this sentiment. If one experiences enough stories, then one starts to see patterns. One spots common elements. These are properly called "Tropes". Learning enough tropes enables one to make predictions, and thus feel as though they have already experienced the story. This can lead to disappointment. On Tvtropes, this feeling is called "Tvtrope Will Ruin Your Life", because it diminishes the pleasure of the story.
Certainly, surprise is part of a story's appeal, but it is a narrow slice of it. What these criticisms miss is that surprising a reader is actually an easy thing to do. It is just not always a wise thing to do.
All a writer has to do to surprise a reader is do something unexpected. That is, to do something that goes against a reader's expectations. Now, all readers are different because they have different experiences, so all readers do not have the same expectations. However, their expectations of a particular genre are likely to be the same.
Some examples - (These have most likely happened in one story of another - Zeroth Law of Trope Examples)
If you have a Medieval Fantasy setting with a Quest narrative, then readers expect lots of traveling and monster fighting. Perhaps a dungeon dive or two. Something unexpected would be to have the climatic shown down with the Evil Overlord take place as a literal cooking duel.
If you have a realistic fiction murder mystery taking place in modern day, then readers expect a list of clues, presentation of multiple suspects, and then a summation at the end, where the culprit is revealed. Something unexpected would be for the culprit to be fingered mid-way through, and the rest of the story to be a long discussion about the appeal of woolen undergarments.
If you have a romantic comedy that takes place in an outer space/futuristic setting, then readers expect romantic moments between the two leads, silly hi-jinks about their courtship, a Third Act Break-Up and then a happy wedding at the end. Something unexpected would be a talking octopus appearing out of nowhere and telling the leads that they are the reincarnations of gods who are needed to fight evil in another world; no wedding, no comedy, just a bunch of high action monster-slaying that is not resolved at the end.
No reader would expect that. It would definitely surprise them. This is because it goes against their expectation of the genre.
This is because all entries in a genre are likely to be the same. That is what makes them a genre. Tvtropes even has a page called "From Clones to Genre", which documents the birth of genres, because if you get enough similar works together then you get a genre. There is a self-aware teen slasher' subgenre, seriously, there is.
No one can say that those three examples are NOT original. I had to wrack my brain to find something that I hadn't seen before. I haven't seen everything, and the Zeroth Law of Trope Examples is a thing, but I'm pretty sure those examples are not common.
But are they any good? Maybe, probably not, but maybe. It would take a masterclass of storytelling to pull that off. A lot of foreshadowing would be necessary to make sense of such a story. If a new element or story direction comes out of nowhere, then the reader would call foul, right? The story wouldn't make any sense if its tone/genre/etc. changed without any warning. That is something TvTropes calls Shocking Swerve. So, the writer needs to add plenty of build-up and foreshadowing so the surprising and original development makes sense.
Yet any foreshadowing would tip the reader off, and therefore it would not be surprising. Therefore, not original, right?
No, it would be original. Maybe. Zeroth Law of Trope Example. Someone has probably done that before, at some point, somewhere. But it would totally be original to a large group of people. But again, would it be any good?
If someone sits down to read a Medieval Fantasy setting with a Quest narrative, then do they want to see the hero and villain settle things by preparing meals in a kitchen?
If someone sits down to read a realistic fiction murder mystery taking place in modern day, then do they want an Author Tract about the appeal of woolen undergarments?
If someone sits down to read a romantic comedy that takes place in an outer space/futuristic setting, then do they want a mid-story twist into a fantasy isekai?
Again, maybe. Some people like being surprised. I imagine this includes the reviewers that I mentioned at the start of this post. If someone reviews stories professionally, then they probably see so many stories so often that Tvtropes Will Ruin Your Life kicks in for them and so they seek novelty. But not everyone seeks novelty. Even those seeking novelty would likely prefer a story that makes sense, even if it is not as "original" as they would like.
If you surprise readers with originality so much that you confuse them, then what have you gained? An upset reader. That is the worst outcome. An upset reader is likely to stop reading and then mock you on social media. Originality is not originality if it causes confusion. It's just a mess. Even if it isn't a mess, does that make it any good?
Again, maybe. I've said that a lot in this post, because it is an opinion, and opinions vary. Your Mileage May Vary, as we say on Tvtropes. I'm sure there is a group that puts a premium on "originality", even if the resulting story doesn't make as much sense as a more conventional story. Nonsense Poetry is also a genre. Unless you're writing that genre, it would be better to avoid confusing readers.
That means foreshadowing. It means uses tropes. It means forming a path that your reader might be able to guess. It means crafting a story that your reader will enjoy even if they ARE able to guess. Because you create anticipation, wetting the reader's appetite, and deliver a satisfying fulfillment of that anticipation.
In my experience, that can be more difficult than surprising a reader. To surprise, you just have to do something unexpected, which is like pulling something out of nowhere. It is easy. To build and fulfill anticipation, you have to actually build something. That requires wisdom. In this way, Surprising Readers is Easy but Not Always Wise.
Brian Wilkerson is an independent novelist, freelance book reviewer, and writing advice blogger. He studied at the University of Minnesota and came away with bachelor's degrees in English Literature and History (Classical Mediterranean Period concentration).
His fantasy series, Journey to Chaos, is currently available on Amazon as an ebook or paperback.